[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 4 09:53:47 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.8    0159UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M7.8    0212UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M5.1    0641UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
three M-class events from region 960. These consisted of a M2.8 
at 0159UT, a M7.8 at 0212UT and a M5.1 at 0641UT. Solar wind 
speed has continued to rise due to the geoeffective coronal hole, 
from 440km/s at 0000UT to be ~500km/s at the time of this report. 
Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, ranged between +/-5nT 
with a notable southward period between 1600UT-1800UT. Solar 
wind speed is expected to remain at elevated levels for the next 
2 days. Further M-class flares with the chance of a X-class flare 
and an associated proton event are possible over the next few 
days as active region 960 remains magnetically complex. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22211232
      Darwin               7   22211232
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth            9   23221332
      Camden               5   12110231
      Canberra             4   11100231
      Hobart               4   11110231
      Casey(Ant)           6   22221122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              53   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              80   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2221 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
05 Jun    12    Unsettled 
06 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Unsettled 
levels over the last 24 hours with the onset of the high speed 
solar wind stream from the current geoeffective coronal hole. 
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected for the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-normal   
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-normal   
06 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid 
latitudes. Disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Similar
conditions expected for the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jun    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    15    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
06 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Daytime and nightime depressed conditons observed for 
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Normal conditions observed for 
Southern Australia/NZ regions with nightime enhancements. Disturbed 
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 24 hours. Possible SWF's due to the 
increase in solar activity. Chance of a PCA event due to possible 
proton event. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:   13.4 p/cc  Temp:    54700 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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