[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 4 09:53:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 0159UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.8 0212UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M5.1 0641UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
three M-class events from region 960. These consisted of a M2.8
at 0159UT, a M7.8 at 0212UT and a M5.1 at 0641UT. Solar wind
speed has continued to rise due to the geoeffective coronal hole,
from 440km/s at 0000UT to be ~500km/s at the time of this report.
Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, ranged between +/-5nT
with a notable southward period between 1600UT-1800UT. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain at elevated levels for the next
2 days. Further M-class flares with the chance of a X-class flare
and an associated proton event are possible over the next few
days as active region 960 remains magnetically complex.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22211232
Darwin 7 22211232
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 9 23221332
Camden 5 12110231
Canberra 4 11100231
Hobart 4 11110231
Casey(Ant) 6 22221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 80 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2221 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
05 Jun 12 Unsettled
06 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours with the onset of the high speed
solar wind stream from the current geoeffective coronal hole.
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes. Disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Similar
conditions expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Daytime and nightime depressed conditons observed for
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Normal conditions observed for
Southern Australia/NZ regions with nightime enhancements. Disturbed
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours. Possible SWF's due to the
increase in solar activity. Chance of a PCA event due to possible
proton event.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 13.4 p/cc Temp: 54700 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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