[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 3 09:43:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0611UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1035UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
two M-class events from region 960. These consisted of a M2.5
at 0611UT and a M1.0 at 1035UT. Solar wind speed has risen from
Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, ranged between 0 and
10nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase
over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Further M-class
flares are expected from region 960 due to its magnetic complexity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 8 23321222
Learmonth 8 23321222
Camden 4 22210111
Canberra 4 22210111
Hobart 3 12210101
Casey(Ant) 6 22311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
05 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 2 days, with an expected increase in activity due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed. Similar conditions
expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime depressions observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Normal conditions observed for Southern Australia/NZ
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with continued
daytime depressions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Possible
SWF's with the increase in solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 57700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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