[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 2 09:46:43 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0651UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.1 1459UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.5 2152UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity rose to Moderate levels in the last 24
hours with the arrival of new region 960. Region 960 was responsible
for three M-class flares, M1.1 at 0651UT, M3.1 at 1459UT and
M2.5 at 2152UT. Solar wind speed has remained at approx 360km/s.
Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, has increased in magnitude
from 5nT at 0000UT to be 10nT at the time of this report, but
with no sustained southward periods. Solar wind speed is expected
to increase in the next 2 days due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 7 22221132
Learmonth 7 22221132
Camden 3 11110122
Canberra 3 11110122
Hobart 3 12110121
Casey(Ant) 6 22221131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 12 Unsettled
04 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels over the last
24 hours. Bz has increased in manitude, but without any significant
southward periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 2 days, with an expected increase in activity due
to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
03 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed. Similar conditions
expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime depressions observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Nightime enhancements observed for Southern Australia/NZ
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible
daytime enhancements for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Possible SWF's with the increase in solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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