[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 1 09:49:09 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours with a
C1.0 class event occuring at 1253UT along with some minor B-class
events that originated from the east limb. Solar wind speed remained
low and is currently 320km/s at the time of this report. Bz,
the north/south component of the IMF, underwent a southward period
of -5nT from 1730UT to 2330UT. Solar wind speed is expected to
increase in the next 2 days due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 5 12210222
Camden 2 11100112
Canberra 2 10100112
Hobart 2 01101112
Casey(Ant) 5 22211221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 6 Quiet
02 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was at Quiet levels over the last
24 hours. Predominently Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 2 days, but with a possible increase in activity due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed. Similar conditions
expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime depressions observed for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions for Southern Australia/NZ
regions and some disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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