[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    1725UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: Active region 960 was the source of a C9.7 x-ray flare 
at approximately 1700UT. The Solar wind speed has steadily declined 
to around 340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated between +/-2nT throughout the UT day. There 
is an isolated chance of a M-class flare, however, it does appear 
the AR960 has decreased significantly in area and its magnetic 
structure is becoming less complex, 240 mils and beta-gamma. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           5   12211212
      Learmonth            2   01210101
      Camden               0   00000000
      Canberra             -   --------
      Hobart               1   10110010
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun     4    Quiet 
08 Jun     4    Quiet 
09 Jun     4    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Normal to depressions of 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Note: periods of no trace occurred on ionograms.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun     8    near predicted monthly values 
08 Jun     8    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun     8    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    51100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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