[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 12 09:40:15 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Region 963 was quiet over the last 24 hours but continues
to grow in size and magnetic complexity. The solar wind density
rose sharply late in the UT day of 10 July and solar wind speed
began increasing at around 2 UT today (11 July). This was due
to the anticipated recurrance of a coronal hole region. Wind
speed is elevated at 600 km/s at the time of this report (23:30
UT) and density has returned to normal levels. Bz, the north/south
component of the IMF fluctuated between +/- 10nT from 00 to 10
UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Active
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 33442411
Darwin 14 33342411
Townsville 16 3-442422
Learmonth 37 5-4-----
Camden 9 31------
Canberra 21 3-552410
Hobart 20 33552411
Casey(Ant) 13 33343311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1001 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 10 Unsettled
13 Jul 6 Quiet
14 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speed and density caused Active
geomagnetic conditions between 2 UT and 17 UT at all latitudes
with Minor Storm conditions between 6 UT and 11 UT. Conditions
are expected to return to Quiet levels over the next 24 to 48
hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications likely to be degraded
at night due to spread F formation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night time communications are likely to be degraded
across all mainland Australian and Antarctic regions due to spread
F formation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 19100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list