[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 11 09:33:12 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Region 963 (S06, E40) continues to produce C-class flares,
and grow in size and magnetic complexity. The solar wind speed
increased abruptly around 17 UT and is currently about 360 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF has been southwards for the last
2 hours and fluctuated between 0 and -13 nT, approximately.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11111023
Darwin 6 22111123
Townsville 6 22211123
Learmonth 7 12211024
Camden 2 01011012
Canberra 2 10002012
Hobart 2 10011012
Casey(Ant) 4 11111023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 15 Mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions.
12 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
13 Jul 5 Quiet to unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbances are possible at high latitudes over the
next couple of days due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Winter
hemisphere communications likely to be degraded at night due
to spread F formation.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed 20-40% 03-08 UT at Vanimo and Port Moresby.
Near predicted values at other times and at Niue.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values, although 20% depressions
observed at Darwin 00-08 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night spread F observed at all latitudes. Spread F
expected during night hours over the forecast period and is
likely to degrade communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 12700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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