[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 10 09:10:04 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Region 963 produced C-class flares and continues to
grow in size and magnetic complexity. Background solar X-ray
flux remains at the B-class level. There is a small chance of
M-class flares over the next few days. A recurring coronal hole
region is expected to become geo-effective in around 24 hours
causing moderately elevated solar wind speed for 2 to 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 12111011
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 12210010
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 2 10002011
Casey(Ant) 3 12211110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day. A recurring
coronal hole region is expected to become geo-effective in around
24 hours leading to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions for 2 to
3 days with isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbances are possible at high latitudes over the
next 2 to 3 days due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
region. Expect mostly normal conditions over the next two days
with depressions possible in Aus/Antarctic regions in association
with geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 54800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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