[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 9 09:39:13 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: New region 963 produced a number of B and minor C -
class flares. Background solar X-ray flux remains at the B -
class level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 5 22222101
Camden 2 21111001
Canberra 2 21102000
Hobart 2 11112000
Casey(Ant) 5 22212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The observed geomagnetic field was quiet, with isolated
unsettled to active periods at high latitudes only. Expect mostly
quiet conditions day one and most of day two. Recurrence suggests
active conditions possible on Jul 11 due to a high speed coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes days two and
three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable enhancements/disturbances over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
region. Extended periods of sporadic-E conditions S Aus/S
Ocean/Antarctic regions. Expect mostly normal conditions next
two days. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Increasing disturbance possible days two and three S Aus/
Antarctic regions in association with elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 80300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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