[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 13 09:24:32 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Region 963 was quiet over the last 24 hours but remains
large and magnetically complex with a possibility of producing
M-class or greater flares. Solar wind speed decreased from 600
km/s to 500 km/s throughout the UT day with the declining influence
of a recent coronal hole region.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 23312111
Darwin 4 22211111
Townsville 7 23212222
Learmonth 8 -4311112
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 22302010
Hobart 4 22302010
Casey(Ant) 7 23222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23 5554 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 6 Quiet
14 Jul 6 Quiet
15 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed early
in the UT day due to the elevated solar wind speed resulting
from the recent geo-effective coronal hole region. Conditions
are expected to return to Quiet levels over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Fair-normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Spread F formation is degrading winter hemisphere
communications during local night time hours. Numerous cases
of short-lived strong sporadic E were observed at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night time communications are likely to be degraded
across all mainland Australian and Antarctic regions due to spread
F formation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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