[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline. A solar region 
just south of the solar equator, in the western solar hemisphere, 
shows some growth, and has produced a minor C class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322221
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           7   22322221
      Learmonth            7   22222321
      Camden               6   22222121
      Canberra             7   22232121
      Casey(Ant)          14   4-433221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3122 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     7    Quiet 
23 Jan     6    Quiet 
24 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jan     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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