[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed again continues to decline. Some minor 
solar activity from solar region 939, located in the western 
solar hemisphere. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21221221
      Darwin               4   21111112
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            6   --311221
      Camden               4   11211121
      Canberra             3   11211111
      Casey(Ant)           9   3--32221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2332 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     3    Quiet 
24 Jan     4    Quiet 
25 Jan     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests quiet conditions can be expected 
for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 30% during local night.
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions variable at times by +/- 15%, 
and blanketing sporadic E possible for southern Australian region 
today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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