[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 21 10:36:14 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed dropped from 650km/s to be 600km/s at the time
of this report. The elevated solar wind speed is due to a coronal
hole wind stream, which is now declining. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated between
+/-5nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22332223
Darwin 7 22221223
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 12 33332223
Camden 8 22231223
Canberra 7 22231212
Casey(Ant) 16 --443223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3412 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 6 Quiet
23 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Notable depressed periods observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Similar, but improving HF conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 20 January
and is current for interval 20-22 January. Notable depressed
periods observed for all regions over the last 24 hours, along
with sporadic E for Northern Aus/Equatorial regions. Improving
conditions however are expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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