[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 20 10:42:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains elevated, currently at ~630km/s. The
elevated solar wind speed is due to a coronal hole wind stream,
which 27 day recurrence patterns suggest the Earth should leave
in coming days. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-5nT over the past
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23233222
Darwin 10 23223223
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 11 23233322
Camden 9 23223222
Canberra 9 23223222
Casey(Ant) 13 3--43222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 16 3333 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next
two days with possible isolated Active periods. Quiet geomagnetic
conditions expected by 21 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Notable depressions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours with an expected return to normal conditions by
21Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable depressed periods observed for all regions over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue
for the next 24 hours, with a return to mostly normal conditions
on 21Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 633 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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