[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 19 10:11:21 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The Sun has again been quiet over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains moderately elevated. The elevated solar
wind speed is due to a coronal hole wind stream, which 27 day
recurrence patterns suggest the Earth should leave in coming
days. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) fluctuated mildly southward over the past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 32433323
Darwin 11 22333223
Townsville 13 23333323
Learmonth 15 33343323
Camden 12 32432223
Canberra 14 32433323
Casey(Ant) 23 4-543333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 26 4443 3354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible today. A decline to
quiet geomagnetic conditions is expected by 21 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected, with improving
conditions at mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 5 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn today at
mid to high latitudes. Then near predicted montly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 668 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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