[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              75/13
COMMENT: The Sun has been quiet over the last 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed currently moderately elevated due to coronal hole 
wind stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) was mildly southward over the past 24hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33333232
      Darwin              14   33333233
      Townsville          13   33333232
      Learmonth           20   44343342
      Camden              11   32333222
      Canberra            12   32333232
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--432-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              50   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            66   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   1511 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan    17    active 
19 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
20 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild geomagnetic activity forecast due to coronal hole 
wind stream and mildly southward IMF conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jan    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan     5    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Jan     5    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible after local dawn at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   206000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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