[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 15 10:20:08 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Region 938 on the eastern limb was the only active region
on the disc, but only produced B-class flares through the day.
The solar wind speed slowly increased from ~400 to 500km/sec
so the coronal hole appears to still be geoeffective although
the speed is showing signs of declining to below ~450km/sec near 23UT.
IMF Bz component varied widely between nearly 10nT north and
south indicating less than optimal coupling with the geomagnetic
field. Bz looks to be trending more southwards around 23UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11212222
Darwin 4 11112122
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 6 11213222
Camden 4 11112121
Canberra 2 00102111
Casey(Ant) 9 22333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 11 Unsettled
16 Jan 21 active
17 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The coronal hole took effect on the weekend. The solar
wind speed is now showing signs of returning to normal and the
geomagnetic field appears to be returned to quiet conditions.
A recurrent active region is expected to take effect 15/16th
Jan and continue until ~19th. A small to moderate size coronal
hole is moving towards geoeffective position on the western limb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions are generally normal with some dusk and pre-dawn
enhancements noted at equatorial latitudes. Sporadic E again
observed in the Australasian region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 10 about 5% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 0 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial latitude enhancements have been observed
near dusk (especially DWN) in the last 24 hours and some slight
pre-dawn enhancements. Mid-latitudes appear to be slightly above
normal monthly MUF. Sporadic E occurred, particularly in south-eastern
areas (CHC, HBT).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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