[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 07

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           4   12111121
      Learmonth            1   12100000
      Camden               0   10000001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Casey(Ant)           7   32231111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   3000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     7    Quiet 
15 Jan    11    Unsettled 
16 Jan    22    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jan    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    99100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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