[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 16 10:30:44 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: AR938 is the only region with sunspots on the visible 
disc and emitted several B-class and one low C-class flare. The 
recurrent coronal hole took effect today with solar wind speed 
(Vsw) rising from ~350km/s at 07UT to over 600km/s by 17UT. Solar 
wind temperature also rose markedly in this 07-17UT period.
IMF Bz (north-south) was also Predominantly southwards from 07-15UT, contributing to the geoeffectiveness of the high 
Vsw. The coronal hole appears extended east-west and patchy in 
the SOHO images. So even though Vsw declined from 17UT to ~500km/s 
it is likely to remain elevated for at least a day. Vsw observed 
at the L1 piint by the ACE s/c is showing signs of an upturn 
at ~2230UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   22334323
      Darwin              11   11333323
      Townsville          11   22333322
      Learmonth           17   22335333
      Camden              13   2-334322
      Canberra            12   22334322
      Casey(Ant)          22   2-544333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan    17    active 
17 Jan    17    active 
18 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The expected recurrent coronal hole has now taken effect. 
The east-west extended and patchy hole is visible in SOHO imagery 
and the leading major portion took effect at ~07UT. Solar wind 
speed (Vsw) observed by ACE s/c at L1 point rose from ~350km/s 
at 07UT to over 600km/s by 17UT. Kp correspondingly rose rapidly 
to 6. Interplanetary Magnetic field IMF Bz (north-south) was 
also predominantly southwards from 07-15UT, contributing to the 
geoeffectiveness of high Vsw and adding to magnetic activity 
via merging with the geomagnetic field. Vsw has declined to ~500km/s 
but shows some indication of upturn at ~2230UT. Trailing patches 
of the coronal hole are likely to cause elevated Vsw over the 
next day or two. This should result in elevated geomagnetic activity, 
with magnitude dependent on IMF Bz polarity.. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
17 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
18 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The ionosphere appears to be mostly normal. There are 
indications that MUFs may be starting to be slightly depressed 
due to the active geomagnetic conditions in the last 12 hours. 
This is due to high Vsw from a recurrent coronal hole. The hole 
is patchy and extended east-west so high Vsw and geomagnetic 
activity should continue for a day or two, possibly depressing 
the ionosphere. Strong sporadic E has occurred in the Australian 
region in the night and particularly morning. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan    10    about 5 15% below predicted monthly values 
17 Jan     0    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
18 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs are slightly reduced already due to high geomagnetic 
activity overnight due to the elevated solar wind speed from 
a recurrent solar coronal hole. They are likely to reduce further 
over the next day or two depending on geomagnetic activity. Strong 
sporadic E has been observed at most latitudes, particularly 
overnight and early this morning, in some cases blanketing the 
F. The south-eastern region appears particularly affected with 
Trans-Tasman circuits showing strong Es. Indications of spread 
F at low latitudes in PNG and northern Australia. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    17700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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