[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 2 10:41:02 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from region 933.
Solar wind parameters indicate the presence of a coronal hole
solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds have increased steadily
over the past 24 hours from approximately 300 km/s up to approximately
500 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated
for the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 21233323
Darwin 12 21234323
Townsville 11 22233323
Learmonth 11 21234322
Camden 10 21233323
Canberra 9 10233323
Hobart 9 21233322
Casey(Ant) 18 3-443333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 20 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
and possible minor storm levels at high latitudes.
03 Jan 15 Unsettled to active
04 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 30 December
and is current for interval 31 December to 2 January. Mildly
elevated geomagnetic activity levels are expected over the next
two days due to the affects of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
Isolated active periods, with possible minor storm levels at
high latitudes, are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for the next
few days, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for the next
few days, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal for the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may affect
HF comms at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 15000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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