[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 3 10:37:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from region 933.
Solar wind speeds continued to increase during the past 24 hours
to around 650 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole. Solar
wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated for the next
two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 19 33354323
Darwin 17 33254223
Townsville 18 33344333
Learmonth 25 43364323
Camden 17 33344323
Canberra 19 33354323
Hobart 18 33354322
Casey(Ant) 21 4--44333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 0012 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 20 Unsettled with isolated active periods and possible
minor storm levels at high latitudes.
04 Jan 15 Unsettled to active
05 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 January and
is current for interval 3-4 January. Mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels are expected to continue over the next 24 hours
due to the affects of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Geomagnetic
activity should abate during 4-5 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for the next
few days, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20% at times
04 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20% at times
05 Jan 10 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 January
and is current for interval 3-4 January. Mild depressions are
possible at times for the next few days, otherwise HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal for the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E
conditions may affect HF comms at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 74800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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