[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 3 10:37:16 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from region 933. 
Solar wind speeds continued to increase during the past 24 hours 
to around 650 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to remain mildly elevated for the next 
two days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   33354323
      Darwin              17   33254223
      Townsville          18   33344333
      Learmonth           25   43364323
      Camden              17   33344323
      Canberra            19   33354323
      Hobart              18   33354322
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--44333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   0012 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan    20    Unsettled with isolated active periods and possible 
                minor storm levels at high latitudes. 
04 Jan    15    Unsettled to active 
05 Jan    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 2 January and 
is current for interval 3-4 January. Mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels are expected to continue over the next 24 hours 
due to the affects of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Geomagnetic 
activity should abate during 4-5 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for the next 
few days, otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jan    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% at times
04 Jan     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% at times
05 Jan    10    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 2 January 
and is current for interval 3-4 January. Mild depressions are 
possible at times for the next few days, otherwise HF conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal for the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E
conditions may affect HF comms at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    74800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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