[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 1 10:25:33 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 933 (returning region 930) produced a C-class
flare at 0717UT on 31 December. Futher C-class flare activity
is possible from this region. Further analysis of the CME observed
on 29 December suggests the CME is predominantly westward directed
and will not be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds are expected
to increase mildly over the next two days as a small coronal
hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 21120112
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 2 11110011
Hobart 2 11100111
Casey(Ant) 7 23321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
02 Jan 20 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
and possible minor storm levels at high latitudes.
03 Jan 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 30 December
and is current for interval 31 December to 2 January. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase mildly over the next few days
as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for 2 January,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for all latitudes for the next three days. Sporadic-E conditions
may affect HF comms at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for 2 January,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for the Aus/NZ region for the next three days. Sporadic-E conditions
may affect HF comms at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 49200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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