[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 27 10:31:22 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly northward for the last 24 hours. The
solar wind reached 400 km/s due to recurrent coronal hole. Over
the last several hours the solar wind speed has steadily decreased
to approximately 370 km/s. Note, coronal hole has weakened this
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 34321111
Darwin 7 34220001
Townsville 9 34221122
Learmonth 15 3-------
Canberra - --------
Casey(Ant) 14 35431111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 6 Quiet
01 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 February
and is current for interval 26-28 February. A recurrent coronal
hole is in geoeffective position, however, due to the northward
orientation of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field and the coronal hole is weaker this rotation, geomagnetic
disturbance will most likely remain at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods possible for the next several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions over the next several days
with occasional spread F at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 22 near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-28 February. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions to prevail in the Australian region. Isolated cases
of spread F possible in the antarctic region. The geomagnetic
disturbances due to the coronal hole are weaker this rotation
and will have minimal effects on the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 26000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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