[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 28 10:10:33 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has mostly fluctuated between +/-5nT for the last
24 hours, however, it did dip down to around -15nT at approximately
0700 UT. The solar wind has been increasing over the last 24
hours due to recurrent coronal hole. It is presently just under
600km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 21432332
Darwin 7 11321223
Townsville 11 22332332
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 10 11332332
Casey(Ant) 16 2-532332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2311 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 February
and is current for interval 26-28 February. A recurrent coronal
hole is in geoeffective position. Expect the geomagnetic activity
to remain at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated cases of
active levels today (28 Feb) and tomorrow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions over the next two
days with short periods of mild depressions possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with isolated
cases of depressions, 15-20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Mar 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-28 February. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions to prevail in the Australian region with short
periods of mild depressions possible for the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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