[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 26 10:41:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly southward for the last 24 hours, but
never below -4nT, til the last hour where it dipped to near -10nT.
The solar wind remained at around 290 km/s for the last 24 hours,
until the last hour where it has risen to 330 km/s and appears
to be still rising. These changes are due to the recurrent coronal
hole reaching its geoffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Darwin 3 11101121
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 22112221
Canberra - --------
Casey(Ant) 8 23321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 30 Active to minor storm
27 Feb 20 Unsettled to active
28 Feb 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is just reaching geoeffective
position and is likely to cause unsettled to active geomagnetic
activity with isolated occurrences of minor storm activity. Unsettle
to active conditions will most likely prevail over the next several
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
27 Feb Fair Fair Fair
28 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Expect HF conditions to become mildly depressed at all
latitudes as geomagnetic disturbances effects the ionosphere
late in the UT day. These mild depressions will slowly ease over
the next several days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 11 Mostly near predicted monthly values earily in
the UT day. Likely mild depressions to occur
later in the UT day, 15-40%.
27 Feb 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 6 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-28 February. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions to prevail in the Australian region until late
in the UT day (26 Feb) when geomagnetic storm disturbances effect
the ionosphere causing mild depressions. Mild depressions will
slowly ease over the next several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 284 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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