[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 25 10:16:40 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 78/17 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 4nT over the last 24
hours and the solar wind speed remains around 285 km/s. A recurrent
coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective on 25 February and
will cause a sudden increase in the solar wind.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 3 21111111
Camden 3 1-------
Canberra - --------
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 5 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 28 Active to minor storm
26 Feb 22 Unsettled to active
27 Feb 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 22 February
and is current for interval 23-25 February. A recurrent coronal
hole is likely to increase activity in the geomagnetic field
to active, with the chance of isolated minor storm levels, on
25 Feb. Active to unsettled levels are likely to persist for
26 to 27 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-poor
26 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail today (25 Feb),
however, expect high latitudes to become mildly depressed late
in the UT day. Tomorrow and 27 Feb mild depressions in MUFs are
possible at all latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 20 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Possible
depressions at high latitudes late in UT day.
26 Feb 0 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 6 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-28 February. Expect HF conditions
to remain normal most of today (25 Feb) for the Australian region.
The Antarctic region may experience mild depressions late in
the UT day. Possible depressions for the Australian region on
26 Feb and 27 Feb due to expected magnetic storm on 25 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 285 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 31000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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