[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 24 10:19:18 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expect to remain at very low levels
over the next several days with a slight chance of C-class flares
occurring from solar region 10944. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 4nT over
the last 24 hours and the solar wind speed remains around 280 km/s.
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective on 25 Feb
and will cause a sudden increase in the solar wind.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 3 11111121
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 2 110-----
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 4 Quiet
25 Feb 28 Active to minor storm
26 Feb 22 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 22 February
and is current for interval 23-25 February. A recurrent coronal
hole is likely to increase activity in the geomagnetic field
to active, with the chance of isolated minor storm levels, on
25 Feb. Active levels are likely to persist for 26 to 27 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-poor
26 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail today and earily
tomorrow (25 Feb). Depressions in MUFs are possible late in the
UT day tomorrow and 26 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 20 Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.
25 Feb 11 Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.
Possible depressions to 30% later.
26 Feb 0 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect HF conditions to remain normal today (24 Feb)
and earily tomorrow. Geomagnetic activity is expected on 25 Feb
and may cause depressions late on the day, although the effect
is most likely to occur on 26 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 20900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list