[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 24 10:19:18 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity is expect to remain at very low levels 
over the next several days with a slight chance of C-class flares 
occurring from solar region 10944. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 4nT over 
the last 24 hours and the solar wind speed remains around 280 km/s. 
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geoeffective on 25 Feb 
and will cause a sudden increase in the solar wind. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111111
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            3   11111121
      Camden               2   11101111
      Canberra             2   110-----
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     4    Quiet 
25 Feb    28    Active to minor storm 
26 Feb    22    Active 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 22 February 
and is current for interval 23-25 February. A recurrent coronal 
hole is likely to increase activity in the geomagnetic field 
to active, with the chance of isolated minor storm levels, on 
25 Feb. Active levels are likely to persist for 26 to 27 Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
26 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail today and earily 
tomorrow (25 Feb). Depressions in MUFs are possible late in the 
UT day tomorrow and 26 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Feb    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb    20    Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.

25 Feb    11    Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.
                Possible depressions to 30% later. 
26 Feb     0    Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect HF conditions to remain normal today (24 Feb) 
and earily tomorrow. Geomagnetic activity is expected on 25 Feb 
and may cause depressions late on the day, although the effect 
is most likely to occur on 26 Feb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    20900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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