[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 23 10:38:19 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: New region 944 (S10E75) was numbered today. Bz of the
IMF has been mostly southward since ~14 UT but is likely to return
to fluctating around neutral over the next few hours. The solar
wind speed is currently around 290 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22111212
Darwin 3 21001112
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 22001212
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 11000111
Casey(Ant) 6 23211212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 4 Quiet
24 Feb 4 Quiet
25 Feb 28 Activity increasing to active levels with the
possibility of isolated minor storm periods.
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is likely to increase activity
in the geomagnetic field to active, with the chance of isolated
minor storm levels, on 25 Feb. Active levels are likely for 26
to 27 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Similar conditions to today are expected to persist.
Depressions in MUFs are possible late on 25 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
10 to 13 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
11 to 16 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 11 Mostly near predicted monthly values at all
latitudes.
24 Feb 11 Mostly near predicted monthly values at all
latitudes.
25 Feb 0 Mostly near predicted monthly values at all
latitudes. Possible depressions to 40% later.
COMMENT: There may be some isolated depressions at low latitudes
during the nights over the next three days. Expected geomagnetic
activity on 25 Feb may cause dpressions late on that day although
the effect is most likely to occur on 26 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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