[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 22 10:26:28 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next
three days, however there is a chance that region 10940 due to
return will increase activity. The solar wind has decreased to
approximately 300 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has fluctuated between +/- 3nT over the last 24
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 12111101
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 2 12101000
Camden 2 11101101
Canberra 0 01000000
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 4 Quiet
23 Feb 4 Quiet
24 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
23 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions in the low to mid latitudes may be slightly
depressed over the next several days most likely due to low
ionization, resulting from very low levels of solar activity. Note, HF
communication may also be effected by isolated cases of sporadic E in
low and high latitudes over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Feb 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Feb 11 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the equatorial and northern Australian
region may be slightly depressed over the next several days most
likely due to low ionization, resulting from very low levels
of solar activity. Note, isolated cases of sporadic E occurred
in the equatorial and Antarctic regions and may continue over
the next several days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 35100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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