[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 19 10:28:04 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 460 to
380 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild (mostly between
+/-4 nT) fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
throughout the day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21222212
Darwin 5 21121212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 20122221
Camden 5 21122211
Canberra 5 21122211
Casey(Ant) 9 33322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 41 (Unsettled)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2311 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 5 Quiet
20 Feb 4 Quiet
21 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The gemagnetic activity is expected to remain at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E-layers, observed on some low
latitude stations, almost completely blanketed the F-layer
over these stations for a few hours in the first half of
the UT day on 18 February. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on most locations for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% for some time during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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