[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 20 10:14:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
Newly numbered region 943(S12E04) produced a C1.1 flare
at 0010 UT. A Type II radio burst, with a speed of 500 km/s,
was observed at 0018 UT. The solar wind speed remained
between 370 and 410 km/s almost the whole day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to mild (mostly between +/-4 nT)
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value throughout
the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21112212
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22112211
Camden 4 11112211
Canberra 2 11012101
Casey(Ant) 6 2--22212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1011 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 4 Quiet
21 Feb 4 Quiet
22 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 58600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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