[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 18 10:04:37 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 520 to 
450 km/s, thus showing a further continued weakening in the 
coronal hole induced solar wind stream. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed 
minor (mostly between +/-3 nT) fluctuations on both sides 
of the normal value throughout the day. Solar activity is 
expected to remain very low for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23223312
      Darwin               9   22223313
      Townsville          10   23223322
      Learmonth           14   33225312
      Camden               9   13223312
      Canberra             9   23223312
      Casey(Ant)          13   3-433321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              86   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1221 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     5    Quiet 
19 Feb     5    Quiet 
20 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Feb    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% for some time during local night.
      Depressed by 25% for some time after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
for most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 558 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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