[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 17 10:18:41 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Low
Flares: C1.7/0156UT
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours.
A C1.7 flare was observed at 0156UT, possibly from the new
region 942(S13E69). The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 600 to 530 km/s over the UT day today, thus
showing a continued weakening in the coronal hole induced
solar wind stream. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor (mostly
between +/-3 nT) fluctuations on both sides of the normal
value throughout the day. Solar activity is expected to
remain very low for the next few days with some possibility
of isolated C-class activity from region 942.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22222221
Camden 5 11212212
Canberra 5 21212212
Casey(Ant) 7 ---22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 11 2412 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 5 Quiet
18 Feb 5 Quiet
19 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day for some time,
Depressed by 15% during local night for some time.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day for some time,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 13 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 13 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 13 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 671 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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