[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 12 10:20:13 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few
days. Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11110122
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 2 01100022
Camden 2 11110012
Canberra 1 00000012
Casey(Ant) 9 23331222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 60 (Unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Feb 18 active
14 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes throughout the UT day. Conditions were quiet to unsettled
at high latitudes. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream has
not yet eventuated and solar wind parameters have declined to
nominal levels. The coronal hole wind stream is expected to arrive
on day one with elevated geomagnetic activity days one to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at mid latitudes
due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions day one.
Periods of disturbance at mid to high latitudes possible days
two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial
region. Periods of disturbance during local day Mid to S Aus/Antarctic
regions due to intense sporadic E conditions. Expect mostly normal
ionospheric support day one, with probability of localised intervals
of disturbance due to sporadic-E conditions. Periods of disturbance
possible S Aus/Antarctic regions days two and three due to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 71000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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