[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 13 10:31:57 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few
days. The anticipated coronal hole wind stream onset occurred
after 10UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 11133323
Darwin 9 10133323
Townsville 12 12234323
Learmonth 5 21------
Camden 9 11133323
Canberra 8 10033323
Casey(Ant) 11 23333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 18 Active
14 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet until 10UT.
After that time the field became unsettled with isolated active
intervals due to onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
Solar wind speed increased to around 500 km/s at the time of
report isssue. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has shown fluctuations of +/- 10 nT, with no sustained
periods of negative polarity. The geomagnetic field declined
to quiet to unsettled towards the end of the UT day. Expect unsettled
conditions next three days with the chance of active intervals
especially at mid to high latitudes.
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1013UT on 12 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at mid to high
latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at mid latitudes due
to sporadic-E conditions. Periods of disturbance possible at mid
to high latitudes next three days due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial
/N Aus region, with mild depressions local night. Periods of
disturbance during local day Mid to S Aus/Antarctic regions due
to sporadic-E conditions. Sporadic-E less intense than on previous
days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic regions
next three days due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 22100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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