[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 11 09:55:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
An east-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 09/1600UT.
This appears to be a far-side event and is unlikely to be
geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the
next few days. Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels.
Recurrence suggests a coronal hole windstream onset on Feb 11.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22111312
Darwin 3 21010212
Townsville 7 22211322
Learmonth 4 21100311
Camden 4 21111212
Canberra 3 21100211
Casey(Ant) 10 33321322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1221 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Feb 18 active
13 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes throughout the UT day. At high latitudes conditions
were mostly unsettled. Expect similar conditions for the first
half of day one. Later in the UT day a high speed coronal hole
windstream onset is anticipated, bringing unsettled to active
conditions. Chance of minor storm periods at high latitudes next
two to three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at low to mid
latitudes due to intense sporadic E. Expect similar conditions
day one. Periods of disturbance at mid to high latitudes possible
days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/
N Aus region. Intense sporadic E conditions observed around local
dawn. Periods of disturbance during local day Mid to S Aus regions
due to intense sporadic E conditions. Expect mostly normal ionospheric
support day one, with probability of localised intervals of
disturbance due to sporadic-E conditions. Periods of disturbance possible
S Aus/Antarctic regions days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 84400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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