[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 6 10:28:28 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains at normal levels and is steady at around
340 km/s. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22122122
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22122121
Camden 5 12122112
Canberra 5 12122122
Casey(Ant) 13 34-32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at Quiet levels and is expected
to remain Quiet over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were very close to normal
throughout the UT day at all latitudes. Persistent cases of sporadic
E were observed at all latitudes throughout the UT day however,
causing partial or complete blanketing of the highest ionospheric
layers. Sporadic E was particularly strong at low and low to
mid latitudes. Simalar HF conditions are likely to be repeated
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was very close to normal throughout
the UT day across all Australasian regions. Persistent cases
of sporadic E were observed throughout the UT day in all regions
however, causing partial or complete blanketing of the highest
ionospheric layers. Sporadic E was particularly strong in
Equatorial/Pacific and Northern Australian regions. Simalar
ionospheric conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 33900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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