[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 5 10:17:33 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed continued to decline to around 340 km/s by late
in the UT day and is currently stable. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22121012
Darwin 4 22120012
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 21------
Camden 4 12121012
Canberra 3 12020002
Casey(Ant) 5 --321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1200 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at Quiet levels and is expected
to remain Quiet over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were close to normal throughout the UT
day at all latitudes. Numerous short lived cases of sporadic
E were observed at low and mid latitudes throughout the UT day,
causing partial blanketing and in some cases complete blanketing
of HF frequencies. Similar HF conditions are likely to be repeated
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 11 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was close to normal throughout the
UT day across all Australasian regions. Numerous short lived
cases of sporadic E were observed at all Equatorial/Pacific,
Northern and Southern Australian stations throughout the UT day,
indicating partial blanketing and in some cases complete blanketing
of HF frequencies. Similar HF conditions are likely to be repeated
over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 40900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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