[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 4 10:06:19 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed has continued its steady decline to around 370
km/s. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
few days, with a chance of C-class flares from the bi-polar
sunspot region 940.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth - --------
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 1 11110000
Casey(Ant) 7 33-21111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at Quiet levels and is expected
to remain Quiet over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were enhanced during local late afternoon
and night time hours at all latitudes. Strong and persistent
sporadic E was observed throughout the UT day at all latitudes,
causing partial blanketing and in some cases complete blanketing
of HF frequencies. Similar HF conditions are likely to be repeated
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 22 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was enhanced during local late afternoon
and night time hours at all latitudes. Strong and persistent
sporadic E was observed throughout the UT day across all Australasian
regions, causing partial blanketing and in some cases complete
blanketing of HF frequencies. Similar conditions are likely to
be repeated over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 87200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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