[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 7 10:34:24 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 80/20 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed increased to around 400 km/s and Bz, the southward
component of the IMF, fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 6 22221222
Camden 5 22221112
Canberra 4 12220112
Casey(Ant) 13 34-32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 6 Quiet
08 Feb 6 Quiet
09 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at Quiet levels and is expected
to remain Quiet over the next few days with a slight chance of unsettled
conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were enhanced at low latitudes,
particularly during local night time hours and close to normal
at mid and high latitudes throughout the UT day. Strong sporadic
E was observed at low latitudes throughout the UT day, causing
partial or complete blanketing of the highest ionospheric layers.
Similar HF conditions are likely to be repeated over the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 16 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was enhanced in Equatorial/Pacific
and Northern Australian regions, particularly during local night
time hours and close to normal in all other Australasian regions
throughout the UT day. Strong sporadic E was observed in
Equatorial/Pacific and Northern Australian regions throughout
the UT day, causing partial or complete blanketing of the highest
ionospheric layers. Similar ionospheric conditions are likely
to be repeated over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 37100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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