[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 30 10:39:58 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speeds declined
gradually over the past 24 hours from approximately 400 km/s
down to 350 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue
to decline slowly over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12111112
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 11111012
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 3 02111111
Casey(Ant) 6 22321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2200 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 3 Quiet
31 Dec 3 Quiet
01 Jan 6 Mostly quiet with the chance of unsettled levels.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec -25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
31 Dec -25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jan -25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 29 December
and is current for interval 30 December to 1 January. MUF depressions
of up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region
over the past 24 hours. Blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed
at times across the Australian region during the past 24 hours
which may have effected HF propagation conditions. Continuing
MUF depressions are expected at times over the Aus/NZ region
for the next few days due to very low levels of solar activity,
with significant depressions possible at times. Continuing sporadic-E
expected at times for low-mid latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 69200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list