[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 31 10:32:33 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: A C1-flare observed at 2005UT on 30 December was most
likely due to a region rotating around into view on the SE limb.
Further low level C-class flare activity is possible from this
region over the next few days. Solar wind speeds have continued
to decline and are presently around 330 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22122211
Darwin 5 22122211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 21123211
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 2 11112100
Hobart 3 11122100
Casey(Ant) 10 33332211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jan -15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jan -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 29 December
and is current for interval 30 December to 1 January. MUF depressions
of up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region
over the past 24 hours, primarily for northern regions. Continuing
MUF depressions are expected at times over the Aus/NZ region
for the next few days, however, depressions should become less
significant as solar activity is expected to increase slightly
over the next few days. Blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed
at times across the Australian region during the past 24 hours
which may have effected HF propagation conditions. Continuing
sporadic-E is expected at times for low-mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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