[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 29 10:51:30 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. Solar wind speeds declined
gradually over the past 24 hours from approximately 460 km/s
down to 400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 3 22101111
Camden 3 21101111
Canberra 3 22100111
Hobart 4 22121101
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 6 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec -25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
30 Dec -25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
31 Dec -25 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 26 December
and is current for interval 27-29 December. MUF depressions of
up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region
over the past 24 hours. Blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed
at times across the Australian region during the past 24 hours
which may have effected HF propagation conditions. Continuing
MUF depressions are expected at times over the Aus/NZ region
for the next few days due to very low levels of solar activity,
with significant depressions possible at times. Continuing sporadic-E
expected at times for mid-latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 75800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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