[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 28 10:26:51 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed
increased gradually over the UT day and continues to increase.
Currently ~ 460km/s. Some moderate fluctuations in the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) and solar wind density indicate a weak coronal
hole or solar sector boundary crossing. STEREO EUVI imagery suggests
it may be due to a narrow weak coronal hole. Effects are expected
to be minor.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22311122
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 8 23222132
Learmonth 7 22221132
Camden 7 -3311122
Canberra 5 12311022
Hobart 6 12312022
Casey(Ant) 12 3-422223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0011 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 3 Quiet
30 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field in the Australian region was mostly
Quiet to Unsettled over the past 24 hours with the increase in
activity due to a slight increase in solar wind speed and moderate
fluctuations in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). Mostly
Quiet conditions expected in the Australian region 28 Dec. Some
Unsettled periods possible due to enhanced solar wind and IMF
parameters.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Fair-normal Poor-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Fair-normal Poor-fair Normal-fair
29 Dec Fair-normal Poor-fair Normal-fair
30 Dec Fair-normal Poor-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Widespread and often blanketing Sporadic-E observed
27 Dec at Southern mid latitudes. Also widespread MUF depressions
resulting from low solar activity. These conditions are likely
to continue 28 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by up to 30% over UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% over UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec -25 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Dec -30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Dec -30 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 26 December
and is current for interval 27-29 December. MUF depressions of
up to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region
over the past 24 hours, particularly during local day. Widespread
and often blanketing Sporadic-E was again observed across the
Australian region over the UT day degrading HF propagation conditions.
Continuing MUF depressions are expected over the next few days
due to very low levels of solar activity, with significant depressions
possible at times. Continuing sporadic-E expected at mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 21100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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