[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 27 10:00:23 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar disc remains spotless. The solar wind speed
is low and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) stable. No
significant solar or solar wind activity is expected over the
forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Darwin 4 11122112
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 4 11112212
Camden 3 1112111-
Canberra 3 10112111
Hobart 2 11112100
Casey(Ant) 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 2 Quiet
28 Dec 2 Quiet
29 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field in the Australian region was Quiet
over the past 24 hours. Quiet - Unsettled conditions were observed
at high latitude stations. Quiet conditions are expected for
the Australian region over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Poor-normal Poor-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Poor-normal Poor-normal Normal-fair
28 Dec Poor-normal Poor-normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Poor-normal Poor-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Widespread MUF depressions and Sporadic-E observed 26
Dec, particularly at mid and low latitudes. These conditions
are likely to persist 27 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec -35 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec -37 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 26 December
and is current for interval 27-29 December. MUF depressions of
up to 40% were observed at times across the Australian region
over the past 24 hours, particularly after dawn and during local
night. Widespread and often blanketing Sporadic-E was also observed
across the Australian region over the UT day degrading HF propagation
conditions. Continuing MUF depressions are expected over the
next few days due to very low levels of solar activity, with
significant depressions possible at times. Continuing sporadic-E
likely at mid and low latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 38800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list