[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 23 10:34:38 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined very slowly over the past
24 hours down to approximately 580 km/s. Solar wind speeds are
expected to continue to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 7 22123222
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 8 22123232
Camden 7 12123222
Canberra 7 12223222
Hobart 7 12223222
Casey(Ant) 11 ---33322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3332 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 6 Quiet
25 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the
Australian region for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 15% to mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
24 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 20 December
and is current for interval 21-23 December. Depressions of up
to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region over
the past 24 hours, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were also
observed at times across the Australian region over the past
24 hours which may have affected HF propagation conditions. Mild
depressions are expected over the next few days due to very low
levels of solar activity, with significant depressions possible
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 641 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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