[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 24 10:43:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours
down to approximately 450 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue to decline slowly over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22232212
Darwin 5 22122211
Townsville 7 22232212
Learmonth 6 22222212
Camden 8 23232212
Canberra 7 22232212
Hobart 7 22232211
Casey(Ant) 13 3--33323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1221 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 6 Quiet
26 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed over
the Australian region during the past 24 hours with isolated
active and minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. Mostly
quiet levels are expected for the Australian region for the next
few days, with isolated active levels possible for high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15-30% at times to mostly near
predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15-30% at times to mostly near
predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
26 Dec -20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 23 December
and is current for interval 24-26 December. Depressions of up
to 30% were observed at times across the Australian region over
the past 24 hours, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were also
observed at times across the Australian region over the past
24 hours which may have affected HF propagation conditions. Mild
depressions are expected over the next few days due to very low
levels of solar activity, with significant depressions possible
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 608 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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