[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 13 09:30:48 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, however
there were several B-class x-ray flares. Active Region 10978
has changed little over the last 24 hours. Expect more B-class
flares with possible isolated C-class flares over the next three
days. The solar wind stream remained around 600 km/s most of
the UT day due to a coronal hole. The solar wind will most likely
slowly decrease over the next 24 hour as the coronal hole rotates
towards the west limb. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mostly between +/- 5nT for the last 24 hours. The GONG
magnetogram shows an active region with reverse polarity at
approximately north 27 degrees latitude and 70 degrees east of the
central meridian. Culgoora Observatory noted a spot in this vicinity
yesterday, however it has not been seen today. This may be the first
spot group of the next solar cycle(24).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33332112
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 10 33332112
Camden 7 23322012
Canberra 8 33322012
Hobart 8 32332111
Casey(Ant) 14 4--33223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3233 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Dec 6 Quiet
15 Dec 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support has improved due to the recent increase
in sunspot activity. Noted sporadic E in the Northern Australian
region, particularly during evening hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.33E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 282000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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