[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 12 10:09:38 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, however
there were several B-class x-ray flares. Active Region 10978
has changed little over the last 24 hours. Expect more B-class
flares with possible isolated C-class flares over the next three
days. The solar wind stream increased to 650 km/s and then settled
back down to 550 km/s over the last 24 hrs due to a coronal hole
reaching it's geoeffective position on the solar disk. The solar
wind is expected to remain elevated for the 12th and to steadily
decrease on the 13th. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mostly between +/- 5nT for the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 33333333
Darwin 11 32223332
Townsville 11 3232331-
Learmonth 18 43334333
Camden 15 33333333
Canberra 16 33433333
Hobart 15 33433332
Casey(Ant) 22 5--43333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 0222 2124
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 12 Unsettled
13 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect unsettled conditions in the magnetic field with
isolated cases of active levels due to high speed solar wind
effects.
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0609UT on 11 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support has improved slightly due to the
recent increase in sunspot activity. Noted sporadic E in the
Northern Australian region, particularly during evening hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.25E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 69300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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