[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 11 10:53:20 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, however
there were several B-class x-ray flares. Active Region 10978
has increased slightly in size and magnetic complexity. Expect
more B-class flares with possible isolated C-class flares over
the next three days. The solar wind stream has increased from
350 km/s to 450 km/s over the last 24 hrs due to a coronal hole
reaching it's geoeffective position on the solar disk. The solar
wind is expected to increase to just over 600 km/s for the next
three days. Around 2000- 2100 UT the Bz component of the magnetic
field dip to -15nT, however, has returned to near neutral presently.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 12222224
Darwin 10 22122324
Townsville 11 12222334
Learmonth 12 12223334
Camden 9 12222224
Canberra 9 12222224
Hobart 9 12222224
Casey(Ant) 12 3--32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
13 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: A recurring coronal hole region is likely to produce
unsettled to active conditions in the geomagnetic field over
the next three days due to a high speed solar wind stream. There
is also a possible short period of minor storm conditons a high
latitudes due to a southerly Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field dipping to -15nT between 2000-2200 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec -15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed dtrticularly at low
latitudes during local night. Expect ionospheric support to improve
slightly due to the recent increase in sunspot activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.07E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 72800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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